AOL Time Warner Cash Flow Outlook: 2002 Projections Cut

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AOL Time Warner faces economic challenges with declining ad revenue and cautious growth forecasts, yet benefits from strong film and subscription performance.

Investors received sobering news as AOL Time Warner's incoming chief, Richard Parsons, addressed Wall Street.

Facing a harsh economic climate, the media giant slashed its 2002 cash flow growth projection to 8-12%, abandoning earlier double-digit ambitions.

First-quarter performance appears stagnant, matching 2001 levels.

A deep advertising recession struck nearly all divisions, with yearly ad revenue down 3% and plummeting 13% in Q4.

Parsons conceded past growth forecasts proved overly optimistic, acknowledging, "We ran straight into a major advertising recession."

He emphasized the company's resilience despite these headwinds, noting accomplishments went unrecognized.

Bright spots emerged elsewhere:

Warner Bros. films like "Harry Potter" drove domestic box office to $1.8 billion, while robust DVD sales boosted filmed entertainment.

AOL subscriptions surged past 33 million, fueled by 2 million new signups after AOL 7.0's launch.

Time Warner Cable revenue climbed 14%.

However, Warner Music Group struggled with a 20% cash flow decline, impacted by industry-wide piracy challenges.

Parsons confirmed the $7 billion cash purchase of Bertelsmann's stake in AOL Europe.

Additionally, new accounting rules mandate a massive $40-$60 billion noncash charge.

Despite losing AT&T's cable systems to Comcast, Parsons signaled ongoing acquisition interest in cable operators like Cox or Charter.

He projected a recovery starting in 2023, targeting growth in the "low to high teens," backed by AOL's cross-promotion strategy.

Investors responded positively, lifting shares 2.3% despite the lowered outlook.

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